------------ Původní zpráva ------------
Od: Roger Harrison <email@example.com>
Předmět: [TEP144] Solar Cycle 24 & Evening TEP
Datum: 27.4.2007 09:40:17
The next Solar Cycle, number 24, looks set to start in March 2008, as it
passes the minimum, and is forecast to reach a peak sunspot number of
either 140, plus or minus 20 – moderately high – or 90, plus or minus 10 –
moderately low – according to an announcement on 25 April of a panel of
international solar experts.
If the peak is moderately high (or strong, as the experts say), it is
forecast to peak in in October 2011, or, if it's to be a weak one, the
peak will come in August of 2012. The forecast was coordinated by the
Space Environment Center of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). A previous announcement in late 2006 forecast a
strong peak. Now, the panel is evenly divided between a strong peak in
2011 and a weak peak in 2012.
Check out the details at:
For the 2m enthusiasts, there will be increasing opportunities to explore
Evening-type TEP as electron/ion densities in the equatorial ionosphere
increase, provided you're far enough north geomagnetically-speaking (or
you can exploit some other propagation for 'extensions'). Anyone keen to
break the eTEP path length record (~7800 km)? Why wait for the peak? The
opportunities don't vanish like flies in winter, you just have to be
rather more persistent to be there at the time. There will be those
144-meggers who grumble, secure in the belief (untested) that 2m Es
declines with increasing susnpot numbers (OK then, you've got another year
to hammer it for all it's worth).
For 70cm enthusiasts, now's the time to plan bridging the VK-JA/HL eTEP
path. It's been done for the South America and Africa-Europe sectors, but
not the Asia-Australasia sector.
73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH