------------ Původní zpráva ------------
 Od: Roger Harrison <rogerh@apogeegroup.com.au>
 Předmět: [TEP144] Solar Cycle 24 & Evening TEP
 Datum: 27.4.2007 09:40:17

Hi all!
The next Solar Cycle, number 24, looks set to start in March 2008, as it passes the minimum, and is forecast to reach a peak sunspot number of either 140, plus or minus 20 – moderately high – or 90, plus or minus 10 –  moderately low – according to an announcement on 25 April of a panel of international solar experts.
If the peak is moderately high (or strong, as the experts say), it is forecast to peak in in October 2011, or, if it's to be a weak one, the peak will come in August of 2012. The forecast was coordinated by the Space Environment Center of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A previous announcement in late 2006 forecast a strong peak. Now, the panel is evenly divided between a strong peak in 2011 and a weak peak in  2012.
Check out the details at: www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

For the 2m enthusiasts, there will be increasing opportunities to explore Evening-type TEP as electron/ion densities in the equatorial ionosphere increase, provided you're far enough north geomagnetically-speaking (or you can exploit some other propagation for 'extensions'). Anyone keen to break the eTEP path length record (~7800 km)? Why wait for the peak? The opportunities don't vanish like flies in winter, you just have to be rather more persistent to be there at the time. There will be those 144-meggers who grumble, secure in the belief (untested) that 2m Es declines with increasing susnpot numbers (OK then, you've got another year to hammer it for all it's worth). 

For 70cm enthusiasts, now's the time to plan bridging the VK-JA/HL eTEP path. It's been done for the South America and Africa-Europe sectors, but not the Asia-Australasia sector.
73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH